The latest Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC, released in 2021, delivered a sobering message: Many aspects of climate change are now inevitable and irreversible. Scientists predict that the world will reach 1.5°C of warming by 2040, leading to more heat waves, intense storms, droughts, and floods. The report serves as a stark reminder of the urgency to take immediate and decisive action to combat climate change.
While 2040 looks far and gives the illusion that we have time to slow the rate of emissions, The average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15 [1.02 to 1.27] °C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels. 2022 is the 8th consecutive year (2015-2022) that annual global temperatures have reached at least 1°C above pre-industrial levels, according to all datasets compiled by WMO. 2015 to 2022 are the eight warmest years on record. The likelihood of – temporarily – breaching the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement is increasing with time. The world’s hottest year on record so far was 2016, coinciding with a strong El Niño -. El Niño pushes warm water in the Pacific Ocean eastwards, causing the Pacific jet stream to move south of its neutral position. This produces dryer and warmer weather in the northern US and intense rainfall and flooding in the US Gulf Coast and Southeast. In Europe, it can lead to colder, drier winters in the north and wetter winters in the south. As a result, the world will face more intense heat waves, prolonged hot seasons and more powerful storms. Indonesia and Australia will likely experience hotter and drier weather with a greater possibility of wildfires. Monsoons in India and rains in South Africa might be reduced while east Africa could get more rains and flooding. El Niño also increases hurricane activity in the Pacific meaning places like Hawaii will be at risk of tropical cyclones During the phenomenon.
In 1938, steam engineer, Guy Stewart Callendar, decided to take a break from his day job and began collecting records from 147 weather stations worldwide. With painstaking calculations done by hand, he discovered that global temperatures had risen by 0.3°C over the previous 50 years. Callendar boldly argued that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industry were responsible for this global warming phenomenon. Unfortunately, his assertions were largely ignored by other scientists who believed humans couldn’t impact such a vast system as the climate. Nevertheless, Callendar’s estimates of global warming were remarkably accurate and aligned with modern assessments.
The year 1958 marked a turning point with the work of Charles David Keeling, a postgraduate geochemist. Keeling designed his own apparatus to measure the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere, a groundbreaking endeavor at the time. Stationed atop the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii, Keeling meticulously recorded measurements, providing the first unequivocal proof of rising CO2 concentrations. He also attributed this rise to the use of fossil fuels, marking a crucial link between human activities and climate change.
In 1967, researchers Syukuro Manabe (he later won the Nobel Prize for his work in 2021) and Richard Wetherald created the world’s first accurate computer model of Earth’s climate. Their model predicted that doubling concentrations of CO2 could raise global temperatures by 2°C, a finding that resonates with present-day climate projections. This pioneering work set the stage for the development of more sophisticated climate models that continue to guide our understanding of future climate scenarios. The same year, glaciologist Dr. John Mercer warned that global warming could cause Antarctic ice sheets to collapse, leading to a disastrous rise in sea levels. While conducting fieldwork in West Antarctica, he discovered evidence of a former freshwater lake, indicating the complete melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the past—an occurrence previously deemed impossible.
In 1969, NASA’s Nimbus III satellite provided the world’s first accurate measurement of global atmospheric temperatures, revolutionizing the study of Earth’s climate. Over the years, subsequent satellite missions have allowed scientists to gather unprecedented data on global temperatures, greenhouse gas concentrations, ozone depletion, and more. Advanced technologies developed by organizations like RAL Space have further improved our ability to measure surface temperatures with incredible accuracy.
In 1974, the Vostok camp in east Antarctica drilled down to 950m where the ice dates back 60,000 years. By 1985, drilling reached depths of 2,083m to ice that dates back 160,000 years. Finally, in 1999, the ice cores were drilled at 3,300m dating back 420,000 years. Taylor Dome camp, the most recent drilling, reached depths of 554m in 1994 with a higher resolution of data from the past 11,000 years. With the Vostok, Taylor Dome (referred to now as TD) and other ice core records in Antarctica, researchers are able to study the correlation between temperature and CO2. The discovery of the hole in the ozone layer over Antarctica in 1985 shocked the world. Scientists from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) linked this depletion to the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) found in aerosol cans and refrigeration. The findings led to the Montreal Protocol in 1987, a groundbreaking international agreement aimed at phasing out ozone-depleting substances.
The establishment of the IPCC in 1988 marked a new era in climate research. Composed of leading experts, the IPCC provides policymakers with regular scientific assessments on the current state of knowledge about climate change. The reports issued by the IPCC have played a vital role in shaping international climate policies. In 1992, scientists realized that higher levels of CO2 in the ocean could hinder the growth of coral reefs and other marine organisms. The subsequent understanding of ocean acidification and its impacts has highlighted the urgent need to reduce CO2 emissions and protect fragile ecosystems. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) came into force in 1994, representing the first global treaty aimed at combating climate change. This landmark agreement paved the way for subsequent international efforts such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement, which seek to limit greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate global warming.
In 2004, Professor Pete Stott and his team at the UK Met Office established a significant link between extreme weather events and climate change. Their research showed that climate change had doubled the risk of the deadly 2003 European heat wave (which killed more than 20,000people, revealing the tangible consequences of a warming world. A major breakthrough occurred in 2015 when 196 countries signed the Paris Agreement, committing to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This agreement reinforced the urgency of collective action to address climate change and mitigate its effects.
In 2018, climate scientists convened by the United Nations published a report warning us of what is likely to happen beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. At 1.5 degrees warming, sea level is expected to rise by 10 to 30 inches (26 to 77 centimeters), putting 10 million more people at risk from coastal storms and flooding. Heat waves will continue to get worse, exposing 14 percent of the world population to extreme heat at least once every five years. Ecosystems will suffer, too. After 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, up to 90 percent of all coral reefs could die out, and about 7 percent of Earth’s land area could shift into a new biome, with grasslands turning to desert, tundra turning to forest, etc.
Currently, each country has a different threshold for what constitutes an El Niño event. Globally due to El Nino, temperatures increase by around 0.2 degrees Celsius, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).This could mean breaking the crucial 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming limit, in 2023 or/and 2024( which earlier was anticipated to be in 2040).
