While they are geographically close, Morocco and Libya are very different countries. And the tragedies that hit both recently hold some hard lessons for us all.
In early September, a 6.8 magnitude earthquake struck the Marrakesh-Safi region of Morocco. Days later, Storm Daniel, a cyclone, made landfall in Libya. Dams along the eastern port city of Derna broke and 39 million cubic yards of water flooded the area. Storm Daniel is the deadliest Mediterranean cyclone in recorded history: Over 4,000 Libyan people died in the floods, with 7,000 injured and potentially over 10,000 still missing, according to estimates from the United Nations.
Unlike Libya, Morocco is a relatively stable monarchy, and though its government has been criticized for its response to the Marrakesh-Safi earthquake, it is at least a functioning state. Moroccans are working together to help and rebuild the affected regions, and there is a strong sense of solidarity across the country. Libya meanwhile has been mired in civil war and dysfunction for over a decade. In no small part because of the ill-fated interventions of Western governments in 2011, the country exists as a semi-failed state. Two rival governments, the Government of National Stability in the east and the Government of National Unity in the west, jockey for power, while parts of southern Libya are controlled by tribal and Islamist militias. None of the various powers has enough legitimacy to enact policy. A presidential election was scheduled for 2018 but has been indefinitely postponed, and five years on shows no signs of being held.
Years of neglect and war made Derna particularly susceptible to natural disasters. The dams had not been maintained since 2002. The Islamic State seized parts of Derna in 2014, before Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, leader of the Libyan National Army, overtook the city in 2017. In 2022, researchers at a Libyan university warned that the dams needed urgent attention and maintenance. Nothing was done. Storm Daniel hit Greece about a week before it made landfall in Libya, and authorities knew it had the potential to damage the eastern parts of the country. The mayor of Derna reportedly asked Haftar to help evacuate the city before the cyclone hit, but the request was ignored. The results of this neglect have been catastrophic. Libya now faces the great and terrible task of rescuing the thousands of people who have been displaced and rebuilding the areas that have been destroyed.
It will also face continuing internal conflict. Residents began to protest days after the floods to express their anger with eastern Libyan officials. Many of the residents claim they were explicitly told not to leave the city before the floods, though officials have denied this. The Derna mayor’s house was burnt down, and people demonstrated in what is left of Derna’s streets. This may be a preamble to a military crackdown. Haftar and the eastern Libyan administration have already prevented UN aid teams from entering the city and have ordered journalists to leave, and around a dozen people were arrested according to the Libyan National Army (the number may be much higher). Yet what Derna desperately needs is help. The logistical hurdles will only prolong people’s suffering. Multiple countries and international organizations have pledged assistance, but how much aid will be accepted by the divided nation remains to be seen. As of this writing, rescue operations are still ongoing and around 40,000 people remain displaced.
This disaster is a grim reminder of the need for infrastructure in a world of extreme weather. The United States is not as divided as Libya, but political polarization has rapidly increased since the early 2000s. Congressional gridlock and government shutdowns have become fairly regular features of American life. There are areas of agreement, however. Republicans, Democrats and independent voters all favor spending on infrastructure. A bipartisan infrastructure bill was passed in late 2021 and a majority of Americans supported the bill, according to Gallup polls. This rare convergence in opinion suggests that future infrastructure bills may be successful, particularly if they are aimed at protecting areas from natural disasters. Republicans may consider climate change to be less of a threat than Democrats, but there is no question that the United States has faced several extreme weather events this year and that protections must be put in place to avert Storm Daniel-type catastrophes.
The U.S. must also learn another bitter lesson from the crisis in Libya. Western governments aided rebels in removing the former ruler of Libya, Muammar Gaddafi, in 2011. Gaddafi was undoubtedly a brutal dictator. Under his regime political repression, baseless arrests of political opponents, and torture were common occurrences. Yet Libya was also much more stable than it is now. In the wake of Gaddafi’s assassination, liberal democracy did not suddenly flower in the region. Instead a kind of anarchy was unleashed, with various rebel groups and political factions engaging in conflicts that continue to this day. The breakdown of Libya’s institutions has made the aftermath of Storm Daniel all the worse.
Our own institutions have weakened over the past two decades, and political polarization and conflict may come to a head in the next presidential election in 2024. Former President Trump is still challenging the previous election and facing criminal charges, yet he is poised to be the Republican nominee. President Joe Biden plans to run for re-election, and a repeat of 2020 seems likely. Large numbers of the population may refuse to accept the outcome of the election if Biden wins again. Political violence may follow, just as it did when protestors stormed the Capitol in January 2021.
A stable and functioning government is necessary to cope with the challenges of a new world order. Extreme weather, economic crises, and warfare all seem likely to continue in the future. The United States will not survive the world that has come into being if it remains as internally divided and dysfunctional as it currently is. Whether our leaders will be able to overcome partisan conflict to protect the nation is a live question. A positive outcome seems dubious, however. Whatever happens in 2024, the president will have to preside over a country that is becoming ungovernable. The urgent task will be to prevent America from sliding into the kind of anarchy to which it has consigned other nations over the previous two decades.
