In November of 2022 the world hit 8 billion people. It only took about 12 years for the population to grow from 7 to 8 billion, matching the rapid growth of the past 50 years, but this may be the last time it grows so quickly. Global population growth is slowing, and the UN estimates that it will take 15 years for another billion humans to be born, then 18 years for the next billion, then a slow 32 years for the next. Whatever the projections, the changing population drives reactions both of fear and hope.
In this new year, the United States marks a population of over 334 million, an increase of around 1.5 million since the beginning of 2022. According to the US Census Bureau, the combination of births, deaths, and net international migration to the US increases our population “by 1 person every 27 seconds.” Net international migration is particularly important for the population increase of the US: the Brookings Institution notes that immigration is essential for countering slow growth. They write that the US “is in the midst of unprecedented demographic stagnation,” and that increased immigration would help to secure the growth of the young population.
The US Census Bureau predicts that beginning in 2030, because of population aging, immigration will overtake natural increase (the excess of births over deaths) as the primary driver of population growth for the country. The non-Hispanic White population is projected to shrink over coming decades as well, and the population of people who are “Two or More Races” is projected to be the fastest-growing racial or ethnic group, followed by Asians and Hispanics. The United States – a nation of immigrants in the first place – will be even more pluralistic than it is today.
The demographic turning points the US will face in the next few decades are, like other world population milestones, met with mixed reactions. Though immigration can support the workforce and increase the number of young people – a cause for hope – we will still be an aging nation, and our senior citizens will eventually outnumber our American youth. This is naturally concerning, and the US is not the only country to face such a problem. Dr. Elin Charles-Edwards from the University of Queensland says, “We’re going to have more and more countries where there are more older people than young children…This is going to really shape the way we make decisions about how we govern, how we spend our money. It’s a massive cultural change.”
Of course, not everyone can agree on population projections. While the UN predicts the world will contain over 10 billion people by the end of the century, researchers from the University of Washington argue the population will shrink instead, and that by 2100 it may go down to 6 billion. Scientific journal The Lancet, meanwhile, projects a peak world population of 9 billion a little after midcentury. Any of the outcomes will bring with it large economic, social, and cultural change, and in each scenario immigration will be a critical factor in the changes within countries themselves.
It was a rebound in immigration to the US post-COVID, after all, that contributed most to the US population increase from 2022 to 2023. For those legitimately concerned about American population stagnation, immigration reform is therefore a priority. Making it easier and more desirable to move to the United States will counteract the endogenous population issues we’ve noted. But simply knowing what we may face in the future is important for developing a variety of policies. How can we strengthen the economy and improve social services for an aging population? What incentives can we offer to new families? And most importantly: what role can individuals play in our new world? An appropriate reflection for the dawn of a new year, a time of resolutions.
