In May 2020, Pine Manor College in Newton, Massachusetts, announced that it would no longer be able to independently open its doors for me the next fall semester. Driven by a lack of enrollment and revenue during the COVID-19 pandemic, the small liberal arts college was forced to make a tough decision. Announcing a $50 million deal with Boston University, Pine Manor College chose to merge with the larger institution, saving its doors from closing once and for all.
This fate is a mercy when compared to the 53 higher education institutions that were forced to permanently shut their doors during 2020, in part due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, undergraduate enrollment over the past two years has dropped by a whopping 7.8% – amounting to around 1.7 million fewer students over the past year. This sets a new record for the largest two-year drop in undergraduate enrollment in the past 50 years. In fact, 62% of higher education officials now cite low enrollment as the largest challenge their institutions currently face. In the face of these challenges, a record number of schools must now face a crushing new reality – merge with a larger school or face permanent closure.
Many cite these drops purely to the effects of COVID-19, citing the record new numbers and increased limitations for students to attend school. However, according to the Wall Street Journal, drops in college closures have increased over the past decade – well predating the effects of COVID-19, indicating a more widespread problem that has been exacerbated by the effects of the pandemic.
The effects of low enrollment seem to be specific to universities serving primarily middle and low income populations. Community colleges have been hit the hardest, with a 15% drop in enrollment since 2019, compared to the 3.1% increase in enrollment at prestigious private universities, according to the National Education Policy Center. The difference is stark within the Greater Boston Area, as Newbury College in Brookline, MA closes due to low enrollment, while Harvard University’s undergraduate acceptance rate continues to plummet to a miniscule 4%.
A potential driver of this discrepancy is the increasing role that wealth plays in access to college education, especially in light of economic instability due to COVID-19. The college enrollment rate is 19% higher for high-income students when compared to middle-class students, according to the National Center for Education Statistics. It is therefore no surprise that lower-income communities are hit the hardest when it comes to college enrollment. With the majority of college closures aimed at institutions serving lower-income communities, low-income student enrollment is likely to only continue decreasing.
A case in point is what the venerable Urban College of Boston needed to explore to be able to continue to offer its unique bilingual program to their low income student population post pandemic. UCB has provided classes in Spanish and Chinese to accelerate the opportunity for those language speakers to complete their education ASAP and start new careers to begin to make a sustainable income. They have recently entered into an affiliation with Southern New Hampshire University which will provide additional educational opportunities to their student communities
One of the primary reasons for lower enrollment is the continually increasing cost of attendance, as well as concerns over potential return on investments. College tuition on average has been increasing by around 3% every year for the past 5 years, according to the Education Data Initiative. With average annual tuition in Massachusetts amounting to more than $30,000, many students turn to loans to afford their degree. 57% of students at private, nonprofit universities take out student loans, resulting in long term financial loss and hardship. In fact, Federal Student Aid reports that 2.4 million people in America currently still owe college debt at the age of 62 or older.
Compounding with increasing tuition are the low returns on investments of some college degree programs. Over a quarter of programs in the United States currently have a negative return on investment, with many of these programs focusing on the study of arts and the humanities. In the Boston area, both the Berklee College of Music and the New England Conservatory of Music report negative ROIs on the order of $100,000. The result of this discrepancy is clear, with several of the most recent college closures in Massachusetts being schools focusing on the arts, such as the Boston Conservatory and the School of the Museum of Fine Arts, which both closed in 2016. One of the primary complaints of humanities majors in general is a lack of job preparation, with 38% of humanities majors stating that their degree had no relation to their current job, according to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.
In lieu of a traditional college education, many that lack a 4-year degree are turning to online educational classes to gain necessary skills to gain employment. In particular, online coding courses provided by organizations such as Coursera and Flatiron School, just to name a few, have seen massive rises in enrollment. According to Course Report, more than 100 of these programs now exist, with programs ranging from a few months to a year offered at around $15,000. With just a fraction of the cost, students are seeing 20% increases to their salaries, without having to devote the time and financial resources to a traditional 4-year degree.
In a place where the financial endowment is always overflowing, Harvard student Chelsea Wang said “[There has been] no loss in enrollment due to COVID. The number of applicants continues to break records, and the acceptance rate continues to drop. The rise in applications is attributed to the fact that Harvard’s application is now test-optional. I was accepted to Harvard in 2021, which means my class is actually extra large, since it also includes a good number of students who were accepted in 2020 but deferred their enrollment for a year. Many of my classmates live in overflow housing.”
Harvard’s condition at the moment is an outlier to the otherwise sparse and grim forecast for American colleges and universities. The majority of higher education institutions are operating equally on two frequencies, both a result of our seismic cultural priority shift since March 2020. We are adapting to a new reality that is steering more young people than usual towards job training and certificate programs as a way to more conclusively guarantee a career. At the same time, the inflated cost of higher education that had been rising for many years prior to the pandemic is forcing many young people and their families to accept that the dream of a college degree and its guarantee of a great career might (at least for now) be dormant.
After the effects of COVID-19, underlying problems with college education degree costs, as well as applicability to the job market, have been exposed, resulting in enrollment jobs. Now, the ball is in their court — either adapt, or face closure.
