The job market has steadily been stabilizing after a sharp decline in March and April due to COVID-19. Additionally, the stock market is at an all-time high despite America currently undergoing its largest COVID-19 spike since the beginning of the pandemic.
According to the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, after nonfarm jobs fell by 20.5 million in April, beginning in May, jobs have been steadily rising. From May to November, employment has risen by about 12 million.
In regards to unemployment, “The rate is down by 8.0 percentage points from its recent high in April but is 3.2 percentage points higher than it was in February,” wrote the November economic news release from the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Although jobs have slowly been making their way back to pre-pandemic levels, this recent report indicates that overall, the job market hasn’t fully recovered.
Levels of employment, for example, depend on the type of industry a job is in.
In March, jobs in leisure and hospitality were hit the hardest with about 495,000 jobs lost. In April, leisure and hospitality still led with about 7.6 million jobs lost. Comparatively, the industry with the second-highest amount of jobs lost was retail trade, at about 2.3 million jobs.
In April, every job industry experienced a decline in jobs, but starting from May, most industries began to recover with the notable exception of government jobs, which fell by 585,000.
As of the most recent job report, most sectors are continuing to see job growth — the only exceptions are jobs in retail trade, utilities, and government industries.
Although jobs have not yet fully stabilized, the stock market has recently surged upward.
One possible reason for this could be because the stock market heavily skews towards how the tech industry is doing, said Laurence Kotlikoff, professor of economics at Boston University.
“More people are buying from Amazon, for example,” Kotlikoff said. “If you look at the stock market in general … most [firms] have gone down in value. So, we’re getting a very skewed picture.”
Another possible reason for the stock market’s success could be because the Federal Reserve System has “strongly and directly” supported the market.
“[The Fed is] directly supporting the stock market by buying up shares but indirectly by guaranteeing companies debts — either explicitly or implicitly — that’s had an impact on the stock market,” Kotlikoff said.
Kotlikoff also said he believes that, thanks to COVID-19, the job market will look considerably different in the future. Cities in particular will “be looking for long term trouble” because companies will have less reason to buy physical real estate after the success of work-from-home procedures.
“I think you’re going to have some desire to get back and socialize, but I think there’s gonna be a lot more remote work and less business travel — you’re already seeing these layoffs in the airline industry,” Kotlikoff said. “This is reflecting a long term trend.”
COVID-19’s impacts on the job market, Kotlikoff said, also comes with implications for the future of cities.
“You have companies not engaging in so much travel, not renting office space — that means cities are going to be hollowed out,” Kotlikoff said. “That means rental real estate is going to take a hit in the cities. That means the real estate companies — unless the Fed bails them out or continues to — they’re going to go under.”
Kotlikoff said malls and other retail stores would be hit hardest by the aftermath of COVID-19, particularly because some large clothing retailers — such as J.Crew — have already “gone under.”
“The malls are going to be suffering because the large stores that anchored them are not going to be doing that in the future,” Kotlikoff said. “So, the malls may end up being warehouses for Amazon.”
Small businesses, such as boutiques or local restaurants, will likely decrease under COVID-19 as well, Kotlikoff said.
“This is going to have long term implications for where people work and live. I think you’ll see less appeal of the cities because they are harbingers of disease,” Kotlikoff said.
Besides the economic impacts, Kotlikoff said he believes that COVID-19 will have a profound impact on how people, particularly young adults, behave.
“This is going to have a sustained impact on people’s psychology. Everybody who grew up in the 30s, in the Great Depression … they came away with what was called a depression mentality,” Kotlikoff said. “Now we’re gonna have a COVID mentality that is not gonna go away.”
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