Winter Weather Update

Situational Awareness Statement

February 4, 2014

7:15 AM

 

StormTotalIce StormTotalSnowFcst[1]

 

A winter storm with periods of heavy snow is forecast to move into the state late tonight/early tomorrow morning.  Snow, with some mixing of rain/freezing rain in the southeast portions of the state, will continue into Wednesday evening.  The forecast calls for 10” to 14” of snow across much of the western and central portions of the state and into northern Middlesex County and western Essex County.  8” to 10” of snow is forecast for much of eastern Massachusetts within Rte. 495 and into northern Plymouth and Bristol Counties.  6” to 8” of snow is forecast for southern Plymouth and Bristol Counties and northern Barnstable County, with lesser amounts further to the south.

 

The snow likely will have significant impacts on the Wednesday morning commute.

 

Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for all counties except Dukes (where a Winter Storm Advisory has been issued) and Barnstable.  A Winter Storm Warning is issued when an average of 6 inches or more of snow is expected in a 24 hour period, or for 8” or more in a 24 hour period.

 

2014.02.04_AM

From the National Weather Service in Taunton:

 

Uncertainty:

 

Precipitation is expected to begin as all snow everywhere. Then beginning around daybreak Wednesday, a slow transition to a mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected near the south coast.  This mix may lift north to about the MA – CT/RI border through the morning, but it is uncertain exactly how far inland it will get.  For areas along the immediate south coast (particularly over the Cape and Islands), precipitation may change to a period of all rain. This will have in impact on final snow/ice/rain totals.   Therefore, the final totals may well change from current forecasts.

 

Timing:

  • Snow begins everywhere, mainly after midnight tonight.
  • A change from snow to freezing rain and sleet is expected during the morning hours Wednesday for the immediate south coastal region (all rain during the afternoon for portions of the immediate south coast & islands).
  • Precipitation gradually ends Wednesday evening/overnight.

Precipitation Totals:

  • Areas where all snow is expected, snowfall totals of 8-12+ inches are possible.
  • Areas with a mix of sleet and freezing rain, snowfall totals range from 4-8 inches.
  • Areas with freezing rain/sleet – ice totals of a trace to a quarter inch are possible.
  • Areas where just rain may mix in, liquid totals may approach 1.0 inches.

Other Concerns:

  • There is the low probability of isolated splashover/minor coastal flooding for east coastal locations (particularly for the Wed afternoon high tide).
  • The change to rain, may lead to localized urban and poor drainage flooding issues for the immediate south coast and the islands.

Attachments:

1.      Graphics from the National Weather Service in Taunton showing the locations of current Winter Storm Warnings as well as current forecast snow/ice totals.

2.      PowerPoint briefing from the National Weather Service in Albany

 

Stay Informed:

For additional information and updated forecasts, see www.weather.gov/boston (National Weather Service Taunton) and www.weather.gov/albany (National Weather Service Albany).

 

To receive emergency notifications and information from the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency and the National Weather Service on your Android or iPhone, download MEMA’s emergency alerting app Ping4Alerts!.  For further information and detailed download instructions, visit www.mass.gov/mema/mobileapp.

 

MEMA Operations

 

MEMA’s Emergency Operations Center is currently at Level I (Steady State/Monitoring).  MEMA’s 24/7 Communications Center will continue to monitor the forecast and impacts.  MEMA anticipates pushing out another Situational Awareness Statement after 3 PM today, or as warranted, particularly if the forecast changes significantly.

 

 

Kurt Schwartz

Undersecretary, Homeland Security & Emergency Management

Director, Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency

Massachusetts Executive Office of Public Safety and Security

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